Theory of Wild Beasts

Finally, an alternative to the Efficient Market Hypothesis

 

 
 
Related Sites / News

Practical implementation of some of the insights arising out of the Theory of Wild Beasts can be found at www.phaseinvesting.com

denaris, magazine of the Association of Swiss Asset Managers, "Markets Evolve Through Behavioural Phases" (click here to review)

DM Euro FONDS & Märkte aktuell: Mit der Theorie der wilden Bestien investieren (click here to review)

 

 

 

     
 

The THEORY OF WILD BEASTS is a framework for understanding price behaviour in financial markets. It is a total re-think of theory as we know it--something that can actually help in molding our perspective, so that we can intelligently approach the complexity of financial markets.

One of the most complicated issues that any financial theory needs to come to grips with is the complexity of financial markets--i.e. how it deals with the human investors, their actions, and their interactions. This is something which has long been avoided in standard theory for the simple reason that the dynamics of multiple, heterogeneous, intelligent, subjective, adaptive and autonomous agents, all doing whatever it takes to be successful in financial markets, can be quite overwhelming, if not being beyond the deductive capacity of our human mind.

Rather than simplifying reality or adopting unrealistic assumptions, the THEORY OF WILD BEASTS faces up to the situation by embracing a very pragmatic stance on these issues. And this is, that we should simply understand what we can, but at the same time, we need to recognise what is unattainable. Sure, markets are complex. But rather than fight it, why not come up with a way of dealing with all that complexity as best as we can? Starting with a simple acknowledgement that financial economics is actually very different in nature from some of the other sciences such as physics and chemistry. So different, that it would not be surprising if we approached the theory construction problem in a non-conventional way.

 

Our solution, is to adopt a more appropriate philosophical basis, together with a new set of theory building tools, and then add to this, very little apprehension about how one SHOULD go about constructing theory. The result of our efforts is that we end up with some radically different, and yet commonsensical sets of concepts relating to how one should invest and manage money!

 

 

 

 
     
 
   
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