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The
THEORY OF WILD BEASTS
is a framework for understanding price behaviour in
financial markets. It is a total re-think of theory
as we know it--something that can actually help in molding
our perspective, so that we can intelligently approach
the complexity of financial markets.
One
of the most complicated issues that any financial theory
needs to come to grips with is the complexity of financial
markets--i.e. how it deals with the human investors,
their actions, and their interactions. This is something
which has long been avoided in standard theory for the
simple reason that the dynamics of multiple, heterogeneous,
intelligent, subjective, adaptive and autonomous agents,
all doing whatever it takes to be successful in financial
markets, can be quite overwhelming, if not being beyond
the deductive capacity of our human mind.
Rather
than simplifying reality or adopting unrealistic assumptions,
the THEORY OF WILD BEASTS
faces up to the situation by embracing a very pragmatic
stance on these issues. And this is, that we should
simply understand what we can, but at the same time,
we need to recognise what is unattainable. Sure, markets
are complex. But rather than fight it, why not come
up with a way of dealing with all that complexity as
best as we can? Starting with a simple acknowledgement
that financial economics is actually very different
in nature from some of the other sciences such as physics
and chemistry. So different, that it would not be surprising
if we approached the theory construction problem in
a non-conventional way.
Our
solution, is to adopt a more appropriate philosophical
basis, together with a new set of theory building tools,
and then add to this, very little apprehension about
how one SHOULD go about constructing theory. The result
of our efforts is that we end up with some radically
different, and yet commonsensical sets of concepts relating
to how one should invest and manage money!
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